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16th Dec 11

British retailers struggle in Christmas build-up

by Harry Oldfield

Cold turkey: retailers losing money as they are forced into massive discounts

The UK’s high streets saw retail sales slump more than expected last month despite heavy discounting.

Britain’s retail sales volumes dropped by 0.7 per cent in November, revealed figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), a poorer performance than the forecast for a decline of 0.4 per cent.

Retailers are struggling to cope with the toughest household incomes squeeze since records started in the 1950s. The sector’s shares have dropped quicker than the broader index during the last month and Deloitte has issued a warning that sales in December will be no improvement on last year. Retailers, including Morrisons and Debenhams, have already begun discounting to lure consumers.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research’s Shehan Mohamed said that annual value growth has slipped significantly from October’s figure of 5.6 per cent to 4.6 per cent in November, an indication that clothing stores and supermarkets are offering bigger discounts in the build-up to Christmas.

In spite of resilient sales performances in September and October, Markit’s chief economist Chris Williamson warned that the fall in November could represent the beginning of a renewed weakening in spending trends. He said that a drop of 4.5 per cent in last week’s Visa Expenditure Index was evidence that this could be the case.

Online shopping remained a plus point last month, as more sales moved to the internet. While supermarkets saw a fall of 0.6 per cent in volumes and non-food stores suffered a decline of 0.7 per cent, non-store retailing – mostly online based – saw a surge in volumes of 18.9 per cent.

Visa Europe has predicted that Friday 23 December would be the UK’s busiest shopping day ever – with over £1.5bn being spent on 33 million visa card transactions.

The high street weakness is being mirrored by the country’s manufacturers, which suffered the biggest decline in export orders in nearly two years in December. According to this month’s CBI industrial trends survey, a minus 32 per cent balance of manufacturers reported that their export order books were higher than normal, which was the lowest figure since January last year.

Citigroup economist Michael Sanders said that it seems obvious that any hopes Britain’s growth could be led by exports next year will have to be altered. The CBI report showed weaker domestic and international demand, and reinforced concerns that manufacturing could be a drag on growth during the fourth quarter.

Overall factory orders dropped to their lowest point in over a year this month, to a minus 23 per cent balance in comparison with November’s figure of minus 19 per cent. It was the fourth monthly fall in a row. Manufacturers announced that they were likely to reduce production during the three months ahead.

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